Five Factors That Will Shape Karnataka Poll Results

Only a week is left for the Karnataka Assembly polls and the campaign is at fever pitch. Most opinion polls are predicting a hung Assembly while the two rivals – Congress and BJP – are predictably claiming they will win. Mainstream media, enamoured of personalities as it is, mainly reports on rallies, statements, and nowadays, social media posts. All these do form part of the picture but can one really know about what people are thinking from what leaders are saying?

To understand Karnataka, have a look at five key issues or factors that will determine the results. Both main parties are engaging with these with varied degrees of success.

Farmers distress

Karnataka has faced 13 years of drought in some parts of the state in the past 15 years. Over 3000 farmers have committed suicide due to indebtedness in the last five years. Depletion of water in both, the river systems and groundwater resources has caused a grave and almost intractable crisis for farmers. With two-thirds of the population residing in rural areas and the bulk of them dependant on agriculture, the crisis is the biggest issue in the state. All parties are campaigning on it.

It would be easy to think that this crisis would favour the opposition BJP because farmers will be angry with the incumbent Congress. But such has been the dismal record of BJP’s central govt. on agriculture that they are unable to decisively swing farmers to their side. BJP chief ministerial candidate B.S.Yeddyurappa too has lost credibility due to prevarication on the Mahadayi River water issue.

Populist schemes

The ruling Congress led by chief minister Siddharamiah has launched a series of popular schemes like Anna Bhagya, Arogya Bhagya, Ksheera Bhagya, Indira Canteens, etc. From all reports these schemes have gone down well amongst Karnataka’s people. These schemes are not life and death types nor are they capable of solving systemic problems. But they do seem to create a goodwill – and provide some relief – to suffering people. As the campaign has shown, BJP has not effectively been able to counter the effect of these schemes. It is difficult to attack populism and the BJP has tried to bypass them by raising other issues. In sum, this aspect of governance will subtract from the anti-incumbency that normally accrues.

Kannada nationalism vs communalism

The BJP has been systematically seeding and nurturing a communal divide in the state. Muslims make up about 13% of the state’s population as per the 2011 Census. There is not a single Muslim candidate put up by the BJP. It has claimed that 23 Hindutva activists have been killed in the past few years, although a recent report revealed that at least one of them is alive, and many others were not killed by Muslims. Their manifesto and their campaign programs are infused with this spirit. Behind the scenes, a more open form of Hindutva driven campaign is being carried out, according to several reports in recent months.

Siddharamaiah, on his part, has come up with a strategy to counter this attempt at communal polarisation by invoking unity of Kannadigas by appealing to Kannada pride and nationalism. While attacking the BJP for its hate mongering, he has pushed for a Karnataka state flag, supported Kannada language supremacy and thus created a ground for countering the communal divide. He has vocally argued against discrimination against southern states in the new Finance Commission’s terms of reference. In another electoral gambit, his govt. also recommended that the powerful Lingayat community in the state be declared a minority religion by the BJP led central govt. Whether this will work in swinging Lingayat votes towards Congress is uncertain but it has created a crack in the otherwise BJP base amongst this community.

Caste

Caste equations and calculations are highly over-estimated both by politicians and mainstream media and often lead to results that are sharply at variance with reality. Commentators have been arguing that this or that party will win based on this or that caste equation. For instance, many argue that with Congress getting the backing of OBCs, Dalits and Muslims, it is unlikely that they will lose. Some are arguing that Lingayats and Veershaivas too will leave BJP and vote for Congress. In the old Mysore region, everybody is working with the assumption that Vokkaligas, a powerful caste in the region, will support the JD (S) and so they will win most of the seats there. While larger political and economic issues will be more decisive in the elections, a close contest may see some of these calculations affect the result.

With the Modi govt.’s – and the Sangh Parivar’s – recent anti-dalit activities including the POA Act dilution issue, rising atrocities and cuts in spending, it is unlikely that the state’s 17% Dalits and 6% adivasis will go with BJP. Although the BSP declared support for JD (S), Mayawati has not visited the state after holding the first rally in Bengaluru, indicating that she too favours the Congress.

Corruption

Usually, corruption affects political image in macro terms not in individual seats. For example, in the 2014 general election, the perception gained credence that Congress was mired in corruption even as many corrupt candidates won in individual constituencies. However, in Karnataka a bizarre and unique situation has arisen with Yeddyurappa, the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate having spent time in  jail, getting thrown out for corruption and yet now leading the campaign. Tickets to the Reddy brothers, accused in the Bellary mining case too are BJP candidates. So, the BJP’s stance on corruption is severely compromised. Their accusations against Siddharamaiah are also watery, him being generally seen as much less corrupt. The campaign has thus propelled the corruption issue to some importance, and the BJP is on the wrong side.