TN: It’s DMK Vs AIADMK for 39 LS Seats Tomorrow, Despite BJP’s Push for Acceptance

The 6.23 crore strong electorate from Tamil Nadu will exercise their franchise on April 19 to elect 39 members to the 18th lok Sabha. The fate of 950 candidates from national, state and regional unrecognised parties, besides independents, will be decided on Friday. The no-holds barred campaign across the state culminated on April 17 despite soaring temperatures.  

In what is being branded as one of the most important elections in the country, the two coalitions --  one led by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the other under the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) -- unleashed powerful campaigns to stamp their authority. 

In the absence of specific anti-incumbency against the DMK-led state government, the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) is pinning hopes on improving its performance in the 2019 general elections, when it won 38 out of the total 39 seats.  

The lacklustre response to multiple roadshows and high decibel campaigning by key leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) exposed the limitations of the party in evoking a positive response among Tamil Nadu’s voters.

DMK PINS HOPES ON WELFARE MEASURES

The ruling DMK, a key party in the Opposition INDIA Bloc, has stitched a strong alliance since the 2019 general elections. The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), which includes the Indian National Congress (INC), the two Left parties, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), is hoping to sweep the state.

With the arithmetic and the alliance playing in its favour, coupled with the welfare measures carried out by the DMK government since assuming power in 2021, holds a fair chance for SPA. 

The free bus travel for women, Rs 1,000 per month as ‘entitlement money’, the breakfast scheme in government schools and Rs 1,000 for girl students educated in government schools pursuing higher education some of the measures implemented in the past 36 months by the DMK-led regime. 

The campaign of DMK leaders, including Chief Minister M K Stalin, and party MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi and Udayanidhi Stalin, the minister in the state government, evoked a massive response from the different sections of the population. The arrival of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in the state also energised the campaign, wherein he addressed two huge public meetings. 

The DMK and its allies have continued to raise issues related to the federal principles being allegedly violated by the BJP-led government at the Centre, the intervention of the Governor in the functioning of the elected government, reduced financial allocation to the state, soaring prices of petroleum products and the promises made by BJP since the 2014 general elections.

AIADMK LACKS CROWDPULLERS

The initial sluggishness in the AIADMK’s campaign improved with time, with party general secretary and former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) leading the campaign across the state. The AIADMK highlighted the unfulfilled promises of DMK besides raising issues of custodial torture and corruption issues. With only the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) being its major ally, the party lacked momentum for the larger part of the campaign. 

EPS was highlighting the lethargy of the DMK government in continuing the AMMA Canteen and Mini Clinics set up during the AIADMK regime. He accused DMK of fulfillling only 10% of its poll promises. 

In a major turn of events, after snapping ties with BJP and the National Democratic Alliance, several AIADMK leaders strongly criticised BJP for making attempts to split the party for its electoral gains. These allegations came only after DMK raised suspicion over AIADMK’s “soft approach” toward BJP in the run-up to the elections. 

Senior party leader and former minister D Jayakumar claimed that he lost the elections because the party allied with BJP in the Assembly elections. EPS later charged BJP of burdening the people of Tamil Nadu. 

In fact, AIADMK was the first ally of BJP in the 1998 general elections, enabling the party to win three seats. In the 1999 elections, BJP contested as part of the DMK-led alliance. 

The lack of star campaigners in AIADMK was evident on the ground, with only EPS being a known face across the state. The influence of the second line leadership of the party is limited to some specific regional areas.

The primary aim of the party is to retain its second position in terms of vote share, while winning seats would be considered a huge bonus. 

HOW EFFECTIVE WAS BJP’s CAMPAIGN? 

With the influence of BJP limited to a few Lok Sabha seats, the party made a high-pitch campaign to project itself as the “second largest” force on the state. The state leadership continued to claim that AIADMK would disintegrate after the Lok Sabha elections, evoking a strong response from its erstwhile ally. 

Adding glamour to the BJP’s campaign was the repeated visits of its national leadership, holding roadshows and public meetings. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, since January 2024, visited the state eight times for inaugurating projects and election campaigns. He held roadshows in Coimbatore and Chennai besides addressing public meetings in Kanniyakumari and Tirunelveli. Union Home minister Amit Shah and BJP president J P Nadda held similar events. 

Though BJP leaders managed to pull crowds in a few places, the response and participation in the roadshows were indifferent leading to cancellation of roadshows by Amit Shah in Tenkasi and Sivaganga constituencies. 

The party was also left red-faced after the police seized Rs 4 crore from party members travelling in a train, reportedly for “bribing” voters in Tirunelveli. The candidate Nainar Nagendran, a sitting MLA, has rejected the allegations even as a probe into the haul is underway.