Split or No Split: How Will PDP’s Internal Rumbling Affect Kashmir and Furthermore India?

Fumes of the brewing rebellion inside the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have spread to the public, pointing to the possibility of a split in the offing. But what this collapse within the party has to offer to the people of Kashmir? Going by what PDP President and former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has said, the split can have “disastrous consequences”. However, the commentators believe otherwise, as they say that Kashmir has been crushed, whether through PDP or through the former rule of the National Conference (NC). Expecting a big change might be futile. But Kashmir, in a big way, is likely to be used during the upcoming general elections in India.

However, the party president has not kept mum over the imminent split; she has taken the charge and has accused the Centre of “engineering a split”. She had said that it would give birth to new terrorists the way Syed Salahuddins (chief of Hizbul Mujahideen) and Yasin Malik (chief of JKLF) were born in 1987, when the Muslim United Front (MUF) was repressed by rigging assembly polls. “Agar Dilli ne 1987 ki tarah yahan ki aawam ke vote pe daaka dala, agar iss kism ki todfod ki koshish ki, jis tarah ek Salahuddin ek Yasin Malik ne janm liya…agar Diliwalon ne PDP ko todne ki koshish ki uski natija bahut yada khatarnaak hoga.” (If Delhi attempts to steal the votes of our people like they did in 1987, if they tried to break the party, the way Salahuddin and Yasin Malik were born… If Delhi tried to break the PDP, the consequences can be dangerous)

The statement by Mufti has gained a lot of traction with several journalists and activists, who are calling it a “provocative statement” and “politics of indulging in the deceit” to protect her party. "Going by what Kashmir has gone through, the split is not going to make any difference to the people. Kashmir has survived the darkest of times. Militancy was there when Mehbooba was in the government, it will be, even when the party gets divided. It cannot be compared with 1987. Kashmiris are not interested in politics. Given a chance, they won’t vote for anyone. They want the Kashmir problem to be solved. The party split can help BJP in 2019 elections," said a student, who is also an activist.

Also Read: PDP Part 2: Coming soon?

Meanwhile, political analysts believe that new government, if formed, with Hindu majority BJP and defectors, will be an unprincipled alliance with no intention of resolving Kashmir issue, and will have no sympathy towards Kashmiris. It might benefit BJP in the upcoming elections, but can lead to chaos in the already conflict-torn region.

The dramatic desertion faced by the PDP in the wake of the fall of the coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir has legitimised the local claim that electoral politics can’t survive in Kashmir. “This is pure drama. Vote politics and elections can’t survive in Kashmir. Everyone is after saving their own seat; no one, is thinking of Kashmiris. This was inevitable,” said a local from Lal chowk of Srinagar.

Meanwhile, the Party’s claim that the dissidents are in minority and hold no challenge to Mehbooba’s leadership has been ruptured by the statement of PDP MLA Abdul Majeed Padder, one of the five dissidents in the party, who has talked about the formation of new government with BJP’s support. However, BJP is denying any such development. Padder has been quoted by Times of India saying that “18 of 28 PDP MLAs were ready to join hands with the saffron party”.

“When my leader late Mufti Muhammad Sayeed could go for alliance with BJP, why can’t we form a government with the BJP.” Padder’s statement comes at a time when Mufti has openly warned the Centre against the possible split. The statement is also the first one where a party dissident has publicly talked about partnering with BJP.

“Rest assured, don’t worry about the numbers. We have more numbers than required. You need 44 members, and we have 51 members. There is no problem as far as numbers are concerned. You will soon get to know how much numbers we have,” DNA quoted Padder as saying.

The magic number of 44 is needed to form a government in the 87-member House. Until now, PDP is the largest party with 28 members followed by BJP (25). If one goes by what Padder has claimed – if 18 PDP members back BJP, which already has 25 legislators, the party will require one more member to form a government, in which case, Sajad Lone of People’s Conference can help, whose party has two MLAs in the House.

Amidst all, the PDP president is trying to reach out to the party workers and discuss their problems. Mufti had chaired a meeting of party leaders at her Gupkar residence. As per the sources, the members in the meeting have asked her to consider restructuring of the party and bringing back Muzaffar Hussain Baig. Baig is a Lok Sabha Member of Parliament and also one of the PDP’s founding members. “There is a need to restructure the party to save the party, and the restructuring has to follow top to bottom approach. Mehbooba has promised that party structure will be changed. We are likely to see Baig back in the party,” said one of the leaders.